February is usually a great time for chocolatiers worldwide due to the Valentine’s Day purchases that include gifts which often include chocolate.

However, this year, the price of chocolate, both in Kenya and in the international markets, is pushing chocolate lovers away from the sweet treat in favour of other options.

According to the Robb Report, chocolate demand has declined following the record-high prices in 2025. Bloomberg reported that analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicted a drop of at least 1.8 per cent in consumption over the course of the year.

That lack of demand, in part, will result in a smaller decrease in chocolate supply than anticipated, according to JPMorgan. This past fall, the company had originally estimated that the 2024-25 season would have a deficit of 108,000 tons of cocoa; now, however, it expects that shortage to be just 40,000 tons.

This is not the only bitter news for chocolate lovers; disappointing harvests in Ghana, Ivory Coast, and Cameroon, countries that collectively produce the majority of the world’s cocoa, have contributed to this price surge.

The International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO), in its December 2024 Cocoa Market Report released in Abidjan, Nigeria, on January 20th, 2025, indicated that regional cocoa associations’ grindings data for the Q4.2024 quarter were lower year-on-year.

“An indicator that cocoa demand is plummeting. The significant rise in cocoa prices will inevitably affect demand. Until current market fundamentals show signs of improving production, cocoa prices may continue to be high. However, should demand continue its downtrend, then the market may head towards an equilibrium.

Supply disruptions in these regions, which account for about 60 per cent of global cocoa production, have exacerbated concerns about shortages and price hikes.

Locally, the price of chocolate has been on a steady rise for the last few years, with a 25-gm bar retailing for KSh50 and a medium-sized bar of 80gms selling for KSh280 to KSh310, depending on the brand.

Brands such as Cadbury’s, Dairyland, and Ferrero are running various offers in stores across the country to capitalise on the Valentine’s Day peak season.

But whether you have a sweet tooth or prefer a more tart delight, the price of chocolate shouldn’t get in the way of coming up with great ways to spend your Valentine’s Day.